A condo building is seen under construction surrounded by houses in Vancouver, B.C., on Friday March 30, 2018. Housing sales in British Columbia are climbing faster than anticipated after a downturn, but a rebound won’t be as inflamed as the sellers’ market two years ago, says a report released Monday by Central 1 Credit Union. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

A condo building is seen under construction surrounded by houses in Vancouver, B.C., on Friday March 30, 2018. Housing sales in British Columbia are climbing faster than anticipated after a downturn, but a rebound won’t be as inflamed as the sellers’ market two years ago, says a report released Monday by Central 1 Credit Union. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Growing population, declining mortgage rates speed up B.C. housing recovery

The average value of a home in B.C. dropped 2.4 per cent in 2019 to $522,000

Housing sales in British Columbia are climbing faster than anticipated after a downturn, but a rebound won’t be as inflamed as the sellers’ market two years ago, says a report released Monday by Central 1 Credit Union.

Declines in home prices, falling mortgage rates, a population increase and continued economic growth have prompted buyers to return to the market, especially in Metro Vancouver, said Bryan Yu, Central 1’s deputy chief economist.

His outlook report on B.C.’s resale market for 2019 to 2021 forecasts a seven per cent decline in B.C. housing resales this year, followed by an increase of 13 per cent in 2020 and a further four per cent jump in 2021, which amounts to an estimated 85,475 unit sales in 2021.

“The overall demand environment or sales environment has picked up quite significantly and what we’re seeing now is that stabilization in the pricing and some upward momentum building as markets are tightening right now throughout the province,” he said in an interview.

But a return to 2017 market levels where resales came close to 100,000 units is not anticipated, Yu said.

He said sales declines that started in 2018 and continued well into 2019 were largely driven by the federal government’s mortgage stress test for home buyers and the B.C. government’s foreign buyers and speculation taxes launched to increase the number of homes available for rent or sale in B.C.’s urban areas.

“The overall sales are still below late 2017 and early 2018 numbers,” said Yu. “But we have seen the mortgage rates drop anywhere up to 80 basis points. You can get a mortgage now for around 2.5 per cent for five years where a year ago you would be paying somewhere above three per cent.”

He said the average value of a home in B.C. dropped 2.4 per cent in 2019 to $522,000, but that same home value is expected to increase 3.8 per cent next year and by another four per cent in 2021.

Yu said the median home price in Metro Vancouver dropped about 10 per cent from last year and is currently at about $690,000. In Victoria, the median home price is $600,000.

He said the rental vacancy rate in most B.C. urban centres remains tight at slightly more than one per cent, while rents are expected to increase by 4.5 per cent for tenants looking for new homes.

The B.C. government’s most recent financial quarterly report released in September said home sales decreased by more than 16 per cent from January to July 2019 compared with the same period in 2018.

The government’s report said Metro Vancouver home sales from January to July 2019 fell 21.5 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2018.

Yu said the coming months will see the resale market rebuild but double-digit price increases are not expected.

“I don’t think there’s a lot of downside for this,” he said. “As we see the migration flows coming in, the population growth numbers and the tight labour market, those (factors) should be enough to provide some stimulus. It’s not going to be heading to the level you saw pre-stress test, but prices are on the rise again in our view.”

ALSO READ: Changes to B.C. building code address secondary suites, energy efficiency

ALSO READ: It could take you 218 years to save up for a house in this B.C. neighbourhood

Dirk Meissner, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Pembina Prince Rupert Terminal celebrated the opening of operations on April 12 in a virtual online ceremony with President and CEO Mick Dilger and Manager of Communications and Media Affair Tasha Cadotte commemorating the ribbon-cutting. (Photo: Supplied)
Pembina celebrates opening of operations in Prince Rupert

A virtual ribbon-cutting ceremony commemorates LPG export facility on Watson Island

Pembina Prince Rupert Terminal shipped its first vessel full of liquefied petroleum gas on April 9, just less than three years after breaking ground at the re-purposed pulp mill site on Watson Island.
Pembina ships first vessel of LPG out of Prince Rupert

More than $12 million spent to repurpose Watson Island for the LPG export facility

Seventy-two cases of COVID-19 are reported for the week of March 28 to April 3 on the map of Graphic Distribution by Local Health Area of Case Residence for Epi-week 13. (image: BCCDC)
Cases increase to 5 in Acropolis Manor’s 2nd outbreak

Prince Rupert Regional Hospital Patient Care unit outbreak is now 4 and includes a staff member

Prince Rupert Fire Rescue attend an apartment fire on the morning of April 11 in a building at 521 Fulton Str. (Photo: K-J Millar/The Northern View)
Sunday morning fire rouses tenants

Prince Rupert Fire Rescue attended an apartment fire at 521 Fulton St.

Kristi Farrell owner of Opa Sushi said on April 8 she has some employees under the Foreign Worker program but some of the COVID-19 challenges may jeopardize employers’ future hirings under the system.
Prince Rupert restaurant owner says hands are tied with COVID-19 layoffs

Foreign Worker Program restrictions limiting choices for employers

Burnaby MLA Raj Chouhan presides as Speaker of the B.C. legislature, which opened it spring session April 12 with a speech from the throne. THE CANADIAN PRESS
B.C. NDP promises more health care spending, business support in 2021 budget

John Horgan government to ‘carefully return to balanced budgets’

A lady wears a sticker given out after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine at a clinic in Richmond, B.C., Saturday, April 10, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS
B.C.’s COVID-19 case count slows after last week’s peak

3,219 new cases since Friday, 18 additional deaths

North Cowichan councillor Tek Manhas did not violate the municipality’s code of conduct by posting a sexist meme on Facebook, council concludes. (File photo)
B.C. municipality to take no action against councillor who posted sexist meme

Tek Manhas’s meme doesn’t violate North Cowichan council’s code of conduct, municipality concludes

—Image: contributed
Indoor wine tastings still allowed in B.C., not considered a ‘social gathering’

“Tasting is really just part of the retail experience. The analogy I use is you wouldn’t buy a pair of pants without trying them on.”

A sign on a shop window indicates the store is closed in Ottawa, Monday March 23, 2020. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is raising its estimate for the number of businesses that are considering the possibility of closing permanently. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Small business struggling amid COVID-19 pandemic looks for aid in Liberals’ budget

President Dan Kelly said it is crucial to maintain programs to help businesses to the other side of the pandemic

The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians says that includes attempts to steal Canadian research on COVID-19 and vaccines, and sow misinformation. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)
Intelligence committee warns China, Russia targeting Canadian COVID-19 research

Committee also found that the terrorist threat to Canada has shifted since its last such assessment

Part of the massive mess left behind in a Spallumcheen rental home owned by Wes Burden, whose tenants bolted from the property in the middle of the night. Burden is now facing a hefty cleaning and repair bill as a result. (Photo submitted)
Tenants disappear in the night leaving Okanagan home trashed with junk, feces

Spallumcheen rental rooms filled with junk, human and animal feces; landlord scared to rent again

Parliament Hill is viewed below a Canada flag in Gatineau, Quebec, Friday, Sept. 18, 2020. A new poll suggests most Canadians are feeling more grateful for what they have in 2020 as a result of COVID-19 pandemic.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions increased slightly in 2019: report

2019 report shows Canada emitted about one million tonnes more of these gases than the previous year

Dr. E. Kwok administers a COVID-19 vaccine to a recipient at a vaccination clinic run by Vancouver Coastal Health, in Richmond, B.C., Saturday, April 10, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
B.C. to register people ages 40+ for COVID-19 vaccines in April

Appointments are currently being booked for people ages 66 and up

Most Read