Mortgage stress test accounts for up to $15B drop in new mortgages in 2018: CIBC

Increasingly unaffordable home prices and rising interest rates also played a role

An aerial view of houses in Oshawa, Ont. is shown on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017. A new report estimates the mortgage stress test accounted for at least half of the decline in new mortgage originations last year. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg

Ottawa’s new mortgage stress tests accounted for at least half of the decline in new mortgages started last year, according to a new report by CIBC that calls for the measure to be revisited amid a falling housing market.

The total value of new mortgages fell by eight per cent or $25 billion in 2018, wrote Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in a report released Tuesday.

READ MORE: B.C. real estate board urges feds to revisit mortgage stress test

He estimates the impact of the new stress test made up $13 billion to $15 billion, or 50 to 60 per cent, of that drop. The other 40 to 50 per cent of the drop comes from increasingly unaffordable home prices and rising interest rates, he said.

Home sales have continued to fall in Canada since a slew of new federal and provincial government measures was introduced. The Canadian Real Estate Association released figures Monday showing home sales in March fell to their lowest level for the month since 2013. Sales through the Multiple Listing Service fell 4.6 per cent compared with a year ago, while the average sale price fell 1.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis to $481,745.

“I think that B-20 was necessary in order to save … some borrowers from themselves,” said Tal in an interview, referencing the official name for the test. It came into effect last year and requires homebuyers to prove that they can service an uninsured mortgage at a higher rate than they qualify for in order to receive a loan from a federally regulated lender.

“However, I think that it has to be a little bit more flexible, more dynamic,” he said.

He argues it does not take into account rising interest rates and said that since the test’s introduction, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points.

“It’s much more severe now than it was when it was introduced,” Tal said.

The test doesn’t consider where we are in the cycle, he said, and what the likelihood is of rates rising 200 basis points — the amount plus the qualifying mortgage rate that uninsured borrowers must prove they could service their mortgage at.

The test also doesn’t take into account that borrowers’ incomes are likely to rise throughout their mortgage term, that borrowers who take on longer mortgage terms decrease risk and that borrowers pay back a significant amount of their outstanding principal over the term.

Lastly, the B-20 contributes to a rise in alternative lending, the report found, which transfers risk from a regulated to a less-regulated segment of the lending market.

Alternative lenders accounted for nearly 12 per cent of the total number of transactions in Ontario in 2018, according to the report. That’s up from close to 10 per cent in 2017 or a roughly two per cent rise since B-20 came into effect.

Just over half of those lenders are individuals, according to the report, with institutional ones, like mortgage investment corporations, making up the remainder. The report estimates 10 per cent of the private lenders are family members.

“Alternative lending, even individual lending, is part of any normally functioning mortgage market,” Tal said. “But a fast-growing alternative lending segment of the market is not part of a normally functioning market.”

If it rises to a big enough number to become a macro story, like 15 per cent, he said, then it can make a difference for the mortgage market and economy as a whole.

Tal suggests rethinking how the test is structured and making it more flexible. That could mean establishing a floor, like four-and-a-half per cent, that you have to qualify at even if mortgage rates fall below it, for example, or using a figure smaller than 200 basis points, like 100, at certain points in the cycle, he said.

“I don’t have all the answers. I’m just suggesting directions to think about.”

Aleksandra Sagan, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Just Posted

Housing affordability in Northern B.C. sees slight improvements: report

Higher paying jobs mitigating effects of increased housing prices, Realtor says

Volunteers brave the rain for Earth Day clean-up

Positive Prince Rupert - Civic Pride clean-up held at the Pacific Mariners Memorial Park on Apr. 21

Prince Rupert students share portraits of kindness with children in Peru

The Memory Project gives teens a chance to sharpen their art skills and global awareness

Rupertykes descend on Pacific Mariners Memorial Park

The sun was out for the Rotary Club of Prince Rupert’s annual Easter egg hunt on Saturday, Apr. 20

Memorable quotes, moments, from Prince Rupert’s first TEDx

The city’s inaugural event was held at the Lester Centre, Apr. 19

Homeless activists outside Notre Dame demand ‘a roof too’

Wealthy people have donated millions to effort to rebuild cathedral after devastating fire

PHOTOS: Green Party Leader Elizabeth May says ‘I do’ on Earth Day

May and John Kidder got married Monday morning in Victoria

Fire forces 36 people at Vanderhoof care home to evacuate

No one was hurt after the fire at Stuart Nechako Manor

Sri Lanka invokes war-time military powers after nearly 300 killed in Easter bombings

Sri Lanka’s minister of tourism says 39 foreign tourists were killed in the Easter Sunday attacks

B.C. Interior yoga studio raises $2,500 for woman leaving abusive relationship

The 100 Mile House studio held a fundraiser yoga class and accepted donations from members to help the woman

Deadly synthetic drug found in Kamloops that puts users in ‘zombielike’ state

Interior Health warning says substance causes ‘speedy, trippy-like symptoms’ and hallucinations

Trudeau to be portrayed on ‘Simpsons’ episode

Toronto journalist who’s posted videos of himself doing impressions of the PM voiced him for the show

Elizabeth May’s wedding dress a ‘walk through a garden’ on Earth Day

Green Party leader set to get married in Victoria

Bodies of 3 mountain climbers recovered after last week’s Banff avalanche

The men disappeared while attempting to climb the east face of Howse Peak in the Icefields Parkway

Most Read