Central bank hikes rate, says tariffs already in place to have modest impact

Bank of Canada has its eye on how widening global trade disputes will impact economy

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday in an economy that it predicts will remain resilient even as it faces an even bigger bite from deepening trade tensions.

The rate hike was the central bank’s first interest rate move in six months and lifted the trend-setting rate to 1.5 per cent, up from 1.25 per cent. It was the bank’s fourth rate increase over the last 12 months.

The decision, a move that will likely prompt Canada’s big banks to raise their prime rates, arrived in the middle of a trade dispute between Canada and the United States that’s expected to hurt both economies.

The bank took the step even as it predicts larger impacts from the widening trade uncertainty, particularly after the United States imposed steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Ottawa’s retaliatory measures. The tariff fight, the bank estimated, will shave nearly 0.7 per cent from Canada’s economic growth by the end of 2020.

However, the bank expects the negative blow of the trade policies recently put in place to be largely offset by the positives for Canada from higher oil prices and the stronger U.S. economy.

“Although there will be difficult adjustments for some industries and their workers, the effect of these measures on Canadian growth and inflation is expected to be modest,” the bank said in a statement.

But in addition to steel and aluminum tariffs, Canada is facing a significant trade-related unknown that many believe would inflict far more damage on the economy: U.S. duties on the automotive sector

U.S. tariffs on the auto sector’s integrated cross-border supply chains would have “large impacts on investment and employment,” the Bank of Canada warned Wednesday in its accompanying monetary policy report.

The bank, however, didn’t quantify the possible effects of auto tariffs on Wednesday. Governor Stephen Poloz has signalled in the past that he’s focused on data he can measure rather than the impacts of trade policies that have yet to materialize.

Canadian businesses must also contend with the uncertainty surrounding the difficult renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, for which talks have stalled.

The Bank of Canada also has its eye on how widening global trade disputes, including an intensifying battle between the U.S. and China, will affect the world’s economy. It warns that “escalating trade tensions pose considerable risks to the outlook” at the global level.

Even with the trade issues, the Bank of Canada is now predicting slightly stronger growth for Canada over the next couple of years, according to updated projections it released Wednesday in its quarterly monetary policy report.

It expects real gross domestic product to grow 2.2 per cent in 2019, up from its April call of 2.1 per cent, and by 1.9 per cent in 2020, compared with its previous prediction of 1.8 per cent. The economy’s growth projection for this year remains at two per cent, the bank said.

Looking ahead, the bank predicts Canadian growth will continue to see bigger contributions from exports and business investment, which were both stronger than expected in the first three months of the year.

At the same time, household spending will represent a smaller and smaller share of overall growth due to the dampening effects of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage rules, it said.

Leading up to the announcement Wednesday, Poloz was widely expected to raise the interest rate following a run of healthy economic numbers, including the Bank of Canada’s own survey on business sentiment, tightened job markets and growth in wages.

Moving forward, the bank said it expects higher interest rates will be necessary over time to keep inflation near its target, however, it intends to continue along a gradual, data-dependent approach.

The country’s inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.5 per cent — above the two per cent mid-point of the bank’s target range — due to temporary factors such as higher gasoline prices before settling back down to two per cent in the second half of 2019.

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

FILE - Nathan Cullen speaks to media in Smithers, B.C., Friday, February 28, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
More calls come in for Cullen’s removal as NDP candidate

Gitxsan Hereditary Chiefs demand Cullen’s removal. Ellis says, There’s no place in B.C. for racism

An election tussle has now erupted over the long-dismantled Skeena Cellulose pulp mill on Watson Island, shown here in a 2013 photo. (File photo The Northern View)
Wilkinson, Horgan tagged over pulp mill file and legal battle

Case dates back to attempt to re-open closed Skeena Celluose pulp mill

ANBT 2021 is still in the planning, Peter Haugan event organizer said on Oct. 13. In the 2020 ANBT, Hydaburg’s T.J. Young drives along the baseline against Prince Rupert’s Brady Johnston. Hydaburg would defeat P.R, but fell to New Aiyansh in the next round. (The Northern View file photo)
All Native Basketball Tournament 2021 still in the planning

“If we cannot run it with our fans, we cannot run the tournament” - Peter Haugan

BC Liberal Party candidate for the North Coast Roy Jones Jr. will hold virtual face-to-face meetings for North Coast communities on Oct. 18. (Photo: K-J Millar/The Northern View)
BC Liberal Candidate Roy Jones Jr, will meet constituents virtually

Face to face conversations will be held on Oct. 18 for North Coast communities

Steven Helin and Kayla Robinson lost everything they owned in a fire in Prince Rupert downtown core on Oct. 5 affecting three businesses and more than 10 rental units. (Photo: K-J Millar/The Northern View)
Aftermath of building fire

Flames of ruined hope

With local MLA Adam Olsen looking on, BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau said a Green government would convert BC Ferries into a Crown corporation Wolf Depner/News Staff)
Green leader Sonia Furstenau promises to convert BC Ferries back into Crown corporation

Promise comes Monday afternoon with five days left in campaign

A passer-by walks past a COVID-19 testing clinic in Montreal, Friday, Oct. 16, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
Canada ‘yet to see’ deaths due to recent COVID surge as cases hit 200,000

Much of the increase in case numbers can be attributed to Ontario and Quebec

Police confirm human remains were found in a recycling bin in Vancouver on Oct. 18, 2020. (Black Press Media file photo)
Human remains found in recycling bin floating near Vancouver beach

Police asking nearby residents to see if their recycling bin has gone missing

B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson visits a North Vancouver daycare to announce his party’s election promises for child care, Oct. 9, 2020. (B.C. Liberal Party video)
B.C. parties pitch costly child care programs in pandemic

B.C. Liberals say they’ll deliver on NDP’s $10-a-day promise for lower-income families

Join Black Press Media and Do Some Good

Pay it Forward program supports local businesses in their community giving

A B.C. man decided to create a website to help people find family doctors accepting patients. Because Victoria is considered high-demand, clinic openings can’t be posted publicly. (Unsplash)
Vancouver Island man starts website that connects B.C. residents with doctors

Nanaimo man started project to help people find family physicians accepting patients

Voting station at Tzeachten Hall in the riding of Chilliwack-Kent on the first day of advance voting in the provincial election on Oct. 15, 2020. (Paul Henderson/ Chilliwack Progress)
B.C. VOTES 2020: 380,000 British Columbians head to polls in first 4 days of advance voting

Some of highest voter turnout so far has been seen on Vancouver Island and in Shuswap

The BC Ferries vessel the Queen of Oak Bay. (News Bulletin file photo)
‘Buy a boat,’ Horgan advises anti-maskers on BC Ferries

NDP leader John Horgan talks COVID-19 misinformation

Most Read